POPULATION HISTORY AND PROJECTIONS
The first U.S. Census of Population, in 1850, reported Marion County’s population as 2,749. At that time, other Oregon counties reporting population were: Benton, 814; Clackamas, 1,859; Clatsop, 462; Linn, 994; Polk, 1,051; Washington, 2,652; and Yamhill, 1,512.
Historical population from 1900 for the State of Oregon, Marion County and the incorporated areas within the County is shown by Table No. 19. Figure 2 graphically shows the population growth trend of the County and the incorporated areas in the County and also the relationship between the two. In 1900, population within incorporated areas accounted for just 26.8 percent of total County population. By 1910, a major change had taken place in the amount of population residing within incorporated areas, with the figure at 50.6 percent. The incorporated population comprised 50 to 60 percent of the County’s population into the 1970s, but by 1980 the incorporated area supported over 70 percent of the residents. The fluctuation in the percentages is a function of the manner in which incorporations and annexations have taken place.
|
|
1900 |
1920 |
1940 |
1950 |
1960 |
1970 |
1980 |
1990 |
2000 |
|
Oregon |
413,536 |
783,389 |
1,089,684 |
1,521,341 |
1,768,687 |
2,091,533 |
2,633,149 |
2,842,321 |
3,421,399 |
|
Marion County |
27,713 |
47,187 |
75,246 |
101,401 |
120,999 |
151,309 |
171,700 |
230,028 |
284,838 |
|
Aumsville |
– |
171 |
174 |
281 |
300 |
590 |
1,432 |
1,650 |
3,003 |
|
Aurora |
122 |
229 |
228 |
242 |
274 |
306 |
523 |
567 |
655 |
|
Detroit |
– |
– |
– |
– |
206 |
328 |
367 |
331 |
262 |
|
Donald |
– |
126 |
164 |
187 |
201 |
231 |
267 |
316 |
612 |
|
Gates |
– |
– |
– |
– |
189 |
250 |
455 |
499 |
471 |
|
Gervais |
224 |
268 |
332 |
457 |
438 |
746 |
799 |
992 |
2,009 |
|
Hubbard |
213 |
320 |
387 |
493 |
526 |
975 |
1,640 |
1,881 |
2,483 |
|
Idanha |
– |
– |
– |
442 |
295 |
280 |
319 |
289 |
232 |
|
Jefferson |
273 |
417 |
479 |
636 |
716 |
936 |
1,702 |
1,805 |
2,487 |
|
Keizer |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
21,884 |
32,203 |
|
Mill City |
– |
– |
– |
– |
1,289 |
1,451 |
1,565 |
1,555 |
1,537 |
|
Mt. Angel |
537 |
936 |
1,032 |
1,315 |
1,428 |
1,973 |
2,876 |
2,778 |
3,121 |
|
St. Paul |
– |
160 |
183 |
226 |
254 |
346 |
312 |
322 |
354 |
|
Salem |
4,258 |
17,679 |
30,908 |
40,087 |
45,245 |
62,960 |
89,233 |
107,786 |
136,924 |
|
Scotts Mills |
– |
208 |
227 |
217 |
155 |
208 |
249 |
283 |
312 |
|
Silverton |
656 |
2,251 |
2,925 |
3,146 |
3,081 |
4,301 |
5,168 |
5,635 |
7,414 |
|
Stayton |
324 |
649 |
1,085 |
1,507 |
2,108 |
3,170 |
4,396 |
5,011 |
6,816 |
|
Sublimity |
– |
172 |
280 |
367 |
490 |
634 |
1,077 |
1,491 |
2,148 |
|
Turner |
– |
289 |
414 |
610 |
770 |
846 |
1,116 |
1,218 |
1,199 |
|
Woodburn |
828 |
1,656 |
1,982 |
2,395 |
3,120 |
7,495 |
11,196 |
13,404 |
20,100 |
|
Source: U.S. Census Bureau |
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Concentrations of population adjacent to incorporated areas may exist for a number of years before the area is either incorporated or annexed. By 2000, with the incorporation of Keizer, incorporated areas accounted for nearly 79 percent of Marion County’s population. This demonstrates that the percentages of incorporated population do not always reflect the true amount of urban population. The trend of total urban population growth will most likely be a constantly increasing percentage and will always be a higher percentage than incorporated population.
State Population Projections
The history of population growth in the State of Oregon reveals a steady increase in total population every decade from 1900 to 2000. Historic and projected State population is displayed in Table No. 20. The projections were made by the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis in 2004.
The significance of the State population is its magnitude and distribution. The majority of the State population is located in the Willamette Valley where most of the increase in population is occurring. The valley is expected to continue to receive the major share of the State’s population increases, putting a great deal of pressure on Marion County and its cities to provide for these new residents.
|
Year |
Population |
Average Annual Growth Rate (%) |
|
1940 |
1,089,684 |
|
|
1950 |
1,521,341 |
3.39 |
|
1960 |
1,768,687 |
1.52 |
|
1970 |
2,091,533 |
1.69 |
|
1980 |
2,633,156 |
2.33 |
|
1990 |
2,842,321 |
0.77 |
|
2000 |
3,421,399 |
1.87 |
|
2010 |
3,843,900 |
1.17 |
|
2020 |
4,359,258 |
1.27 |
|
2030 |
4,891,225 |
1.16 |
|
2040 |
5,425,408 |
1.04 |
|
Sources: 1940 – 2000, U.S. Census; 2010 – 2040 Oregon Office of Economic Analysis |
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County Population
The trend of continuous increase of total State population has been accompanied by continuous increases in total Marion County population, usually at a higher rate than achieved by total State growth.
Table No. 21 indicates that, like the State, Marion County is experiencing a large percentage of its population increase from in-migration. According to the population forecast prepared by the Portland State University Population Research Center, Marion County has experienced periods of higher and lower growth rates since the 1970s. Most recently, Marion County grew at a 2.2 percent average annual growth rate from 1990 to 2000 and a 1.3 percent annual growth rate from 2000 to 2008. The County is forecasted to grow to 410,245 persons in 2030, which is a 1.2 percent average annual growth rate from 2010 to 2030.
|
|
Births |
Deaths |
Natural Increase |
Net Migration |
Total Increase |
Percent Increase |
|
Marion County |
33,788 |
17,871 |
15,917 |
10,319 |
26,236 |
9.2 |
|
Oregon |
333,500 |
221,506 |
111,994 |
212,062 |
324,056 |
9.5 |
|
Source: PSU Population Research Center 2007 Population Report |
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The Portland State University Population Research Center prepared County-wide and city population projections in 2008 at five-year increments through the year 2030. Marion County participated in a series of discussions with representatives of the cities to determine how the estimates for Marion County should be distributed. The population projections for Marion County and all its incorporated cities are shown in Table No. 22. The methods used to develop the preliminary projections were a combination of demographic and housing unit models, including a consideration of additional information provided by local jurisdictions.
|
Jurisdiction |
1990 |
2000 |
2007 |
20301 |
aagr 2010 – 2030 |
|
Marion County |
228,516 |
284,834 |
311,070 |
410,245 |
1.20% |
|
Aumsville |
1,660 |
2,989 |
3,300 |
5,706 |
2.20% |
|
Aurora |
597 |
664 |
955 |
1,825 |
2.54% |
|
Detroit |
331 |
262 |
265 |
371 |
1.70% |
|
Donald |
314 |
607 |
995 |
2,034 |
3.20% |
|
Gates2 |
466 |
437 |
460 |
487 |
0.23% |
|
Gervais |
999 |
1,923 |
2,250 |
4,597 |
2.80% |
|
Hubbard |
1,901 |
2,458 |
3,095 |
4,718 |
1.85% |
|
Idanha2 |
160 |
131 |
145 |
170 |
0.63% |
|
Jefferson |
1,810 |
2,488 |
2,590 |
5,121 |
2.44% |
|
Mill City2 |
309 |
316 |
328 |
367 |
0.53% |
|
Mt. Angel |
2,794 |
3,128 |
3,755 |
4,977 |
1.08% |
|
Salem/Keizer UGB2 |
146,560 |
185,796 |
201,391 |
261,484 |
1.12% |
|
St. Paul |
322 |
352 |
410 |
556 |
1.34% |
|
Scotts Mills |
286 |
316 |
300 |
581 |
2.04% |
|
Silverton |
5,932 |
7,610 |
9,205 |
14,418 |
1.92% |
|
Stayton |
5,029 |
6,829 |
7,765 |
11,359 |
1.66% |
|
Sublimity |
1,487 |
2,139 |
2,255 |
3,200 |
1.53% |
|
Turner |
1,266 |
1,175 |
1,690 |
3,664 |
3.15% |
|
Woodburn |
13,535 |
20,191 |
22,875 |
37,216 |
2.04% |
|
Unincorporated |
42,758 |
45,023 |
47,041 |
47,394 |
0.19% |
|
1 Forecast population |
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|
2 Marion County portion only. Estimates for the entire UGB of the following cities are provided for 2030: Gates, 550; Idanha, 279; Mill City, 1,792. |
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|
Sources: 1990 and 2000, U.S. Census Bureau; September 2008 Portland State University Population Research Center Population Forecasts for Marion County, Its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2010 – 2030. |
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These projections must be viewed as guesses about the future population in Marion County. These numbers may or may not be achieved at specified points in time. It is important, however, that as accurate as possible projections be made for each jurisdiction’s planning area to form a database for long- and short-range plans and implementing programs. These projections provide target dates for planners and decision makers to develop and implement the necessary programs to balance the various goals of the community. By programming community services and facilities according to levels of need at appropriate points in time, cost effective use of public and private funds can be improved.
The establishment and maintenance of 20-year projections for Marion County and the cities as shown in Table No. 22 are issued by the County to coordinate comprehensive plans and need to be reviewed and updated periodically. As actual growth rates change or new population studies are conducted and adopted, it is expected that these projections will be updated and new projections developed in coordination with the cities.
For Marion County and its five largest cities, scenarios were developed to provide a range of possible population projections depending on changing economic conditions, and other factors, that may affect migration into Marion County during the forecast period. The scenarios for Marion County in 2010, 2020 and 2030 are displayed in Figure 3. The scenarios for the five largest cities are provided in Table No. 23.
|
Jurisdiction |
1990 |
2000 |
2007 |
Range |
20301 |
aagr 2010 – 2030 |
|
Keizer |
21,768 |
31,890 |
35,435 |
Low |
41,491 |
0.70% |
|
Medium |
49,486 |
1.48% |
||||
|
High |
57,481 |
2.16% |
||||
|
Salem2 |
95,667 |
119,373 |
129,830 |
Low |
152,562 |
0.74% |
|
Medium |
165,824 |
1.09% |
||||
|
High |
179,586 |
1.42% |
||||
|
Silverton |
5,932 |
7,610 |
9,205 |
Low |
11,723 |
1.18% |
|
Medium |
13,052 |
1.57% |
||||
|
High |
14,502 |
1.96% |
||||
|
Stayton |
5,029 |
6,829 |
7,765 |
Low |
10,053 |
1.15% |
|
Medium |
11,359 |
1.66% |
||||
|
High |
12,721 |
2.13% |
||||
|
Woodburn |
13,535 |
20,191 |
22,875 |
Low |
34,272 |
1.69% |
|
Medium |
37,216 |
2.04% |
||||
|
High |
41,718 |
2.53% |
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|
1 Population range under three growth scenarios. |
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|
2 Marion County portion only. |
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|
Sources: 1990 and 2000, U.S. Census Bureau; September 2008 Portland State University Population Research Center Population Forecasts for Marion County, Its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2010–2030. |
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Although projections were not developed for Polk County, scenarios for the Salem and Keizer Urban Growth Boundary were developed, which includes portions of Salem in Polk County and unincorporated areas of Salem and Keizer in both Marion and Polk Counties. These projections are presented in Table No. 24.
|
Jurisdiction |
1990 |
2000 |
2005 |
Range |
20301 |
aagr 2010 – 2030 |
|
Salem/Keizer Urban Growth Boundary |
159,677 |
203,966 |
217,284 |
Low |
275,449 |
0.9% |
|
Medium |
299,980 |
1.2% |
||||
|
High |
324,929 |
1.6% |
||||
|
Salem |
108,784 |
137,543 |
147,250 |
Low |
187,905 |
0.9% |
|
Medium |
204,320 |
1.3% |
||||
|
High |
221,257 |
1.6% |
||||
|
Keizer |
21,768 |
31,890 |
34,735 |
Low |
41,491 |
0.7% |
|
Medium |
49,486 |
1.5% |
||||
|
High |
57,481 |
2.2% |
||||
|
UGB2 |
29,125 |
34,533 |
35,299 |
Low |
46,053 |
0.9% |
|
Medium |
48,705 |
1.1% |
||||
|
High |
52,903 |
1.5% |
||||
|
1 Population range under three growth scenarios |
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|
2 Area inside UGB and outside city limits of Salem and Keizer in Marion and Polk Counties. |
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|
Sources: 1990 and 2000, U.S. Census Bureau; September 2008 Portland State University Population Research Center Population Forecasts for Marion County, Its Cities and Unincorporated Area 2010 – 2030. |
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Urban Population
Projection of urban area population was made based upon the urban growth programs of each city in Marion County and the overall land use goals and policies of the State and County. Each community’s growth potential was analyzed using past growth trends and expected growth pressures in the future. Each community was consulted in developing these projections to coordinate city-County growth plans. These projections will help give perspective to the development pattern of Marion County by indicating the relationships among population centers. They will also provide guidance in updating of urban growth boundaries for each city. [Ord. 1291 § IV (Exh. B), 2009.]